ALBack of Napkin
Allegion plc ALLE
Written 2026-06-16. The company has filed a quarterly or annual report since, on 2026-07-23, so figures here predate its latest disclosure.
Allegion is a high-quality lock-and-door-hardware compounder priced at 18x earnings after a 26% drawdown from the $183 high, with the market pricing in non-residential construction weakness that's already visible in the order book.
The asymmetry: you're paying a market multiple for a 21%+ EBIT-margin, 45%+ ROE specialty-industrial franchise where the bear case (commercial-construction slowdown) is the consensus base case, leaving the right tail in mix shift toward electronic access control and continued tuck-in M&A.
Key data
ALLE · price with moving averages
Source: market data.
The business
Allegion makes the physical and electronic gear that secures doors: mechanical locks, exit devices, door closers, access-control readers, and the software that ties them together. The brands are the franchise. Schlage in US residential, Von Duprin in commercial exit devices, LCN in door closers, CISA in European mechanical, SimonsVoss in European electronic. The customer is a contractor, locksmith, integrator, or home-improvement retailer; the end-user is a school, hospital, office, hotel, or homeowner. Roughly two-thirds of revenue comes from the Americas segment (where commercial / institutional dominates and Schlage carries the residential channel), and the rest from International (Europe-heavy, more electronic and access-control). The engine is Americas non-residential: that segment generates roughly 75% of operating profit on about 65% of revenue at EBIT margins north of 25%, with the residential and international pieces structurally lower-margin and lumpier.
What the financials don't show: the spec-in moat. Allegion's commercial products get written into architectural specifications years before the building gets built, then installed by the contractor and serviced by the locksmith for the building's life. Switching costs at the building level are low per door but high at the portfolio level because keying systems, exit-device compliance (life-safety codes), and access-control integrations are all brand-specific. This is why the franchise sustains 45%+ gross margins and 21%+ EBIT despite being, mechanically, a maker of metal hardware. The wobble in the last two quarters is the front edge of the non-residential construction cycle softening: ABI (Architecture Billings Index) has been sub-50 for most of 2025, which historically leads Allegion's commercial bookings by three to four quarters.
Inside the complete Back of Napkin
- 01The business
- 02The numbers
- 03Management
- 04The linchpins
- 05Closing
- 06Methodology
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