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Oklo Inc. OKLO

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The bet you're really making is that Oklo builds small nuclear power plants, owns them, and sells the electricity to data centers and the military under long-term contracts, instead of selling the reactors themselves. You're betting the government's nuclear regulator approves the first plant at the Idaho lab and that it gets built close to the promised time and cost. Right now nothing is running: Oklo sold no power last quarter, booked $1.2 million from three small engineering firms it just bought, and lost $48.5 million. You pay $7.2 billion for that promise, and even after the company raised over $1.5 billion in cash you are paying 2.2 times what it is worth on paper, for a company that has never sold a kilowatt of its own power.

Key data

Price$41.27
52-week range$36.61 to $193.84
Price / book2.2x
Enterprise value$5.54B

OKLO · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$-7$39$84$130$176 May '24Oct '24Apr '25Oct '25Mar '26Sep '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Oklo designs the Aurora, a small fast-fission "powerhouse" that starts around 15 megawatts and scales up, cooled by liquid metal and descended from an old Idaho test reactor. The twist that defines the company is the sales model: it does not sell reactors, it plans to build and own them and sell the electricity under multi-year power contracts, the way an independent power producer does. Its customers so far are letters of intent and framework agreements, weighted toward data-center operators desperate for round-the-clock power and a military base in Alaska. In June 2026 Oklo bought three engineering and fuel-services firms, ARMEC, Precision Manufacturing Engineering Solutions, and Creative Engineers, which is where the first $1.2 million of revenue comes from. The moat, if it earns one, is a granted regulatory license plus secured fuel and a site, none of which it holds in commercial form yet. Everything rests on a first plant that does not exist.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05Closing thoughts
  6. 06Methodology

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