BGBack of Napkin
Bunge Global S.A. BG
Written 2026-05-19. The company has filed a quarterly or annual report since, on 2026-07-29, so figures here predate its latest disclosure.
Bunge is one of the four "ABCD" global grain and oilseed processors (with ADM, Cargill, and Louis Dreyfus), buying agricultural raw materials from farmers and crushing, refining, transporting, and selling them to food, feed, and biofuel customers worldwide, now expanded by the late-2025 close of the $34B Viterra merger that gave it a Canadian grain handling network plus enhanced South American origination footprint.
The setup is a recently-closed transformational merger now in its first full integration year, where Q1 2026 adjusted EPS beat at $1.83 and management raised FY26 guidance to $9.00-$9.50; the equity is priced at 13x forward earnings on a globally-scaled ag-trading franchise where the integration synergy ramp is the variable that determines whether this becomes a $200 stock or stays a $120 stock.
Key data
BG · price with moving averages
Source: market data.
The business
Bunge is one of the four "ABCD" global grain and oilseed processors (with ADM, Cargill, and Louis Dreyfus), buying agricultural raw materials from farmers and crushing, refining, transporting, and selling them to food, feed, and biofuel customers worldwide. The late-2025 close of the $34B Viterra merger added Canadian grain origination (G3 Global Grain Group), enhanced South American port and elevator infrastructure, and additional processing capacity, expanding crush and origination volumes across both North America and South America. Forward synergy targets imply $250M+ run-rate cost savings by 2028.
Q1 2026, reported April 29, was the first quarter post-Viterra. GAAP diluted EPS was $0.35 (versus $1.48 prior year) on integration accounting noise, while adjusted EPS was $1.83 (versus $1.81 adjusted prior year). Adjusted segment EBIT rose to $661M from $406M, primarily on stronger Soybean and Softseed Processing and Refining performance in South America and North America. Management raised FY26 adjusted EPS guidance to $9.00-$9.50 (from prior $7.50-$8.00), a ≈20% bump at the midpoint, with the Viterra integration now in execution phase and synergy capture starting to flow through after a minimal Q1 contribution.
Inside the complete Back of Napkin
- 01The business
- 02The numbers
- 03Management
- 04The linchpins
- 05Closing
- 06Methodology
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