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Back of Napkin

Tesla, Inc. TSLA

Three-pass checkedFresh as companies report

Tesla's regulatory credit revenue collapsed from $595M a quarter to $146M after a change in United States law removed the programmes that created it.

Those credits cost nothing to produce, so nearly all of that $449M went straight out of profit.

TSLA · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$120$217$314$411$508 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Tesla makes electric cars, sells stationary batteries to homes and utilities, and is spending heavily on autonomy and robotics. The car business is the whole income statement today: the energy business is growing but small, and the robotaxi service launched in June 2025 with no disclosed revenue.

The company has also stopped publishing unit production and delivery figures in its quarterly filings, so the most basic operating metric now has to come from elsewhere.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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