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Back of Napkin

Intuit Inc. INTU

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Intuit just guided its small-business half to grow 13% to 14% and its TurboTax half to grow 2% to 3%, and the stock is priced at 11 times free cash flow as though both halves were the tax half.

The setup turns on which number the market is actually pricing: the 23% of revenue that is barely growing, or the 56% that is compounding.

INTU · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$225$376$526$677$827 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Intuit sells two different things to two different customers. QuickBooks is the accounting system inside several million small businesses, with payroll, payments and money movement attached; that is the Global Business Solutions segment. TurboTax files the individual return each spring. Credit Karma shows consumers their credit file and charges lenders for the introduction, and Mailchimp sends marketing email.

The moat differs by half. QuickBooks is switching costs: three years of records and an accountant trained on the file make leaving expensive, which is why Intuit raises price and customers stay. TurboTax is habit, renewed annually, with the customer free to walk.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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