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Back of Napkin

Global-e Online Ltd. GLBE

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At $38.12 you are paying 33.6x this year's expected adjusted earnings, roughly 4.6x enterprise value to expected revenue, for the merchant-of-record layer of cross-border e-commerce; the business just guided to 30%+ GMV growth at a rising 21-22% adjusted EBITDA margin and carries about $530M of net cash.

The asymmetry here is durability, not discovery; the multiple already pays for the growth, so the call rides on the take rate holding as Shopify-driven volume mixes in, and that is measurable within two quarters.

Key data

MetricValue
Sector / listingIsrael-based e-commerce enablement, NASDAQ
Price$38.12 (52w range $26.85 to $41.94)
Market cap$6.40B
Net cash≈$530M (Q1-26; no debt beyond leases)
Enterprise value≈$5.87B
Revenue, TTM through Q1-26$1B
EPS, TTM GAAP diluted≈$0.66
FY26E revenue (guidance)$1.22B to $1.28B
Forward P/E (FY26E, adj)33.6x
FCF yield, TTM (EV)4.8%

GLBE · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$25$35$45$56$66 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Global-e sits invisibly behind the checkout of a brand's own website and becomes the legal seller of record for international orders. A shopper in Seoul buying from a British fashion label sees local currency, local payment methods, and a landed price with duties and taxes calculated and guaranteed; Global-e takes on the tax filings, fraud liability, compliance, and returns logistics that the brand cannot economically build for 200+ destination markets. Customers are direct-to-consumer brands and enterprise retailers, plus every Shopify merchant using Managed Markets, Shopify's cross-border product that is built on Global-e. Service fees are the engine: roughly 48% of revenue (Q4-25 split was $160.9M service fees against $175.7M fulfillment) at software-like margins, while the fulfillment side largely passes through shipping economics. The company keeps about 14.6% of the $6.57B of GMV that crossed the platform in 2025, down from 15.5% in 2024 as lower-take-rate volume mixes in.

Two things the financials do not show. First, the Shopify relationship is both the growth engine and the concentration: Shopify took warrants at the partnership's start, and their amortization buried GAAP earnings from 2021 through early 2025 before rolling off. Second, the regulatory ground is shifting in Global-e's favor on complexity even as it taxes demand: the US eliminated its de minimis import exemption in 2025, and the EU removed its EUR150 exemption on July 1, 2026 with an interim flat duty per low-value item. Every new layer of customs friction raises the value of a guaranteed duties-and-taxes layer. The last two quarters were strong: Q1-26 GMV grew 40% to $1.74B, revenue grew 33%, the FY26 outlook was raised in May, and the $350M Passport logistics acquisition closed July 1.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04The linchpins
  5. 05Closing
  6. 06Methodology

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