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Back of Napkin

RELX Plc RELX

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You are paying about 17x forward earnings for the highest-quality information-analytics franchise outside the US tech megacaps, a business that compounded revenue and margin every year for five running and converts 97% of net income to free cash.

The asymmetry is a 40% drawdown driven by AI-disintermediation fear, against a franchise whose own legal-research business is selling AI as the answer; either the moat slowly bleeds to generative substitutes, or the cohort's cheapest compounder re-rates as the fear fades.

Key data

Sector / industryIndustrials / Specialty Business Services (information analytics)
FYE / countryDecember / United Kingdom (US ADR)
Price / 52w range$32.84 / $27.57 to $54.37
Position vs MA50d $34.40, 200d $38.76
Market cap / EV≈$57.8B / ≈$67.4B
Revenue (FY25, GBP)£9.38B
EPS (FY25, GBP diluted)£1.10
Forward P/E (FY26E)≈17x
Beta0.25

RELX · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$27$35$42$50$58 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

RELX sells data-driven analytics and decision tools through four divisions. Risk is the largest and highest-margin, selling fraud-prevention, identity-verification, and underwriting data to insurers, banks, and government agencies through LexisNexis Risk Solutions. Scientific, Technical and Medical (STM) is the Elsevier publishing franchise: ScienceDirect, Scopus, and roughly 2,900 journals sold by subscription. Legal is LexisNexis legal research and drafting tools (Lexis+ with Protégé) for law firms and corporate counsel. Exhibitions runs trade shows globally. The engine is Risk and STM together: Risk carries the franchise at roughly 37% of operating profit on the highest divisional margin, and STM is the second pillar near 28%, the two highest-quality recurring lines. Roughly 80% of consolidated revenue is recurring or contractual, electronic products are now £8.07B of the £9.38B top line, and renewal rates across the subscription divisions run above 95%.

The qualitative fact the financials do not show is that the AI-defense playbook is already shipping. In early 2026 LexisNexis repositioned Lexis+ AI as Lexis+ with Protégé, an agentic legal assistant grounded in an authoritative legal corpus with Shepard's citation validation, where a cited case actually exists and is current, the precise failure mode that makes open generative tools unsuitable for legal practice. The same content-moat logic covers Elsevier's licensed scientific corpus and the proprietary, partnership-tied data inside Risk. The signal that matters more than any reported quarter is renewal-and-adoption momentum: management has called out double-digit growth in the law-firm and corporate-legal lines driven by Protégé uptake, which is the single data point most directly contradicting the disintermediation thesis.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04The linchpins
  5. 05Closing
  6. 06Methodology

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