REBack of Napkin
RELX Plc RELX
You are paying about 17x forward earnings for the highest-quality information-analytics franchise outside the US tech megacaps, a business that compounded revenue and margin every year for five running and converts 97% of net income to free cash.
The asymmetry is a 40% drawdown driven by AI-disintermediation fear, against a franchise whose own legal-research business is selling AI as the answer; either the moat slowly bleeds to generative substitutes, or the cohort's cheapest compounder re-rates as the fear fades.
Key data
RELX · price with moving averages
Source: market data.
The business
RELX sells data-driven analytics and decision tools through four divisions. Risk is the largest and highest-margin, selling fraud-prevention, identity-verification, and underwriting data to insurers, banks, and government agencies through LexisNexis Risk Solutions. Scientific, Technical and Medical (STM) is the Elsevier publishing franchise: ScienceDirect, Scopus, and roughly 2,900 journals sold by subscription. Legal is LexisNexis legal research and drafting tools (Lexis+ with Protégé) for law firms and corporate counsel. Exhibitions runs trade shows globally. The engine is Risk and STM together: Risk carries the franchise at roughly 37% of operating profit on the highest divisional margin, and STM is the second pillar near 28%, the two highest-quality recurring lines. Roughly 80% of consolidated revenue is recurring or contractual, electronic products are now £8.07B of the £9.38B top line, and renewal rates across the subscription divisions run above 95%.
The qualitative fact the financials do not show is that the AI-defense playbook is already shipping. In early 2026 LexisNexis repositioned Lexis+ AI as Lexis+ with Protégé, an agentic legal assistant grounded in an authoritative legal corpus with Shepard's citation validation, where a cited case actually exists and is current, the precise failure mode that makes open generative tools unsuitable for legal practice. The same content-moat logic covers Elsevier's licensed scientific corpus and the proprietary, partnership-tied data inside Risk. The signal that matters more than any reported quarter is renewal-and-adoption momentum: management has called out double-digit growth in the law-firm and corporate-legal lines driven by Protégé uptake, which is the single data point most directly contradicting the disintermediation thesis.
Inside the complete Back of Napkin
- 01The business
- 02The numbers
- 03Management
- 04The linchpins
- 05Closing
- 06Methodology
Continue with RELX
Get the complete Back of Napkin free.
Choose this as your free complete report. No card required.
Read the complete reportAlready a member? Sign in


