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Back of Napkin

ON Semiconductor Corporation ON

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ON Semiconductor's revenue fell 22.4%, then 15.4%, then 12.0%, then 11.2%. The last two quarters it grew 4.7% and 9.2%.

The cycle turned four quarters ago and the stock has not: $71.93 against a $134.92 high, below both its fifty-day and two-hundred-day averages.

ON · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$27$52$78$103$129 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

ON makes power and sensing chips: the silicon carbide and analog parts that manage electricity inside an electric vehicle, an industrial motor, or increasingly a data center rack, plus image sensors that let cars and factory equipment see. Three segments. Power Solutions is now 51.7% of revenue and the only one really growing. Analog and Mixed-Signal is 34.0% and went slightly backwards. Intelligent Sensing is the rest.

The customer concentration is automotive and industrial, which is why the last two years looked the way they did. Both end markets spent 2025 working off inventory built during the shortage, and semiconductor companies do not get to smooth that.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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