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Back of Napkin

Q2 Holdings, Inc. QTWO

Three-pass checkedFiled since 2026-07-29

Written 2026-07-20. The company has filed a quarterly or annual report since, on 2026-07-29, so figures here predate its latest disclosure.

Q2 Holdings just crossed the line every SaaS skeptic said it wouldn't: GAAP profitable, $195.8M of trailing free cash flow, revenue compounding at 14%, and a $2.7B backlog, yet the stock sits 41% below its 52-week high.

You're paying 19.5x FY26E adjusted earnings and getting a 5.7% free-cash-flow yield (TTM, on EV); the catch is that stock comp, at 10.5% of revenue, is roughly half the gap between the adjusted number and the GAAP one.

Key data

ItemValue
Sector / HQVertical SaaS, bank technology; Austin, TX; FYE Dec
Price$54.86; 52w range $40.79 to $92.66
Market cap$3.43B
Enterprise value$3.44B
Revenue, TTM (Q1 2026)$821.6M, +14% YoY
EPS diluted, TTM (Q1 2026)$1.12 GAAP
Forward P/E (FY26E, adj)19.5x on $2.81 consensus
FCF yield, TTM (EV)5.7% ($195.8M FCF)
Net debt≈$0 (0.0x TTM EBITDA)
Total ARR (Q1 2026)$945M, +11.6% YoY

QTWO · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$23$46$70$94$117 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Q2 sells the digital front door of a bank. Its platform runs the online and mobile banking that regional banks and credit unions put in front of their retail and commercial customers: login, payments, account opening, treasury workflows, fraud monitoring, and now an embedded AI assistant layer launched in June 2026. Customers sign multi-year subscription contracts, and the model is nearly pure recurring: subscription is the engine, $802.3M of the $945M total annualized recurring revenue, about 85%, with the commercial and treasury side of the platform driving the larger deal sizes. The backlog of contracted future revenue stands near $2.7B, about 3.4 years of trailing revenue, which is the single best external evidence that the product is sticky.

What the financials don't show is who the customer is. Q2's buyers are the roughly 4,000 US community and regional financial institutions caught between money-center banks outspending them on technology and neobanks courting their depositors. That squeeze is Q2's demand engine (they must buy modern digital banking, and building it in-house is out of reach) and also its slow structural risk, since bank consolidation shrinks the logo count over decades even as surviving institutions spend more per relationship. The last two quarters mattered: Q1 2026 revenue grew 14% with GAAP gross margin up nearly six points YoY to 59.1%, adjusted EBITDA hit $60M at a 27.7% margin per the company's release, and management raised the full-year guide. The moat, named and handed off: switching costs on a mission-critical system of engagement.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04The linchpins
  5. 05Closing
  6. 06Methodology

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