ADBack of Napkin
Adyen N.V. ADYEY
Adyen printed its third consecutive half at 21% constant-currency net revenue growth on August 13, raised the 2026 guide to 21% to 23%, and the ADR jumped 17% on the print to $12.25, a third above where it sat when the July memo was written.
The setup now turns on whether the take rate is falling because merchants are earning volume discounts or because price is being competed away, because at roughly 24x forward earnings the growth is already paid for.
Key data
ADYEY · price with moving averages
Source: market data.
The business
Adyen runs one payment platform it wrote itself and operates on its own private cloud, handling the full flow for large enterprises: gateway, risk, processing, acquiring, settlement, online, in-store and in-app, connecting merchants like Uber, Microsoft, Spotify and Google straight to Visa, Mastercard and local rails. It processed EUR 803.8B of volume in H1 2026 and kept about 16.2 basis points of it. Digital carries the franchise at 55% of net revenue, EUR 719.7M on 53% of the volume, with Unified Commerce at EUR 417.7M and Platforms at EUR 165.5M; the top 300 merchants supply 60% of revenue. Because the platform is already built, incremental volume lands at very high margin, which is how a 16-basis-point toll produces a 50%-plus EBITDA margin. The single codebase is the moat in one sentence, a cost-and-scale advantage no acquisition-assembled rival matches; the durability audit lives in the July 19 Moat Dive.
What the financials do not show is that the compounding is a wallet-share mechanic, not a new-logo mechanic. Merchants typically hold under 20% of their payment volume with Adyen in years three through seven and more than 40% after year twelve, and roughly two-thirds of H1 growth came from merchants onboarded before 2025. Three things changed in the last quarter. Adyen closed Talon.One (EUR 750M) and Orb ($335M) on July 1, its first acquisitions in twenty years, adding loyalty and usage-based billing. It launched Adyen Agentic and Intelligent Money Movement, and won OpenAI, Xiaomi, GOV.UK Pay and a US expansion with Toast. And CFO Ethan Tandowsky leaves on August 31, with Hwa Tsao stepping in as interim from September 1.
Inside the complete Back of Napkin
- 01The business
- 02The numbers
- 03Management
- 04The linchpins
- 05Closing
- 06Methodology
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