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Back of Napkin

Eli Lilly and Company LLY

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Two drugs now produce 65% of Eli Lilly's revenue. Mounjaro alone grew 91% to $9.94B in a single quarter.

The company is worth $1.18T, which means the market has decided obesity is a permanent category rather than a moment.

LLY · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$364$604$843$1082$1321 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Lilly makes prescription medicines. It has made insulin for a century and cancer and immunology drugs for decades, but the company that exists today is essentially two products: Mounjaro, tirzepatide sold for diabetes, and Zepbound, the same molecule sold for weight loss. Both work by mimicking gut hormones that regulate appetite and blood sugar.

The manufacturing is the moat, not the molecule. These are injectable peptides requiring enormous sterile fill-finish capacity, and Lilly has spent years building it while demand exceeded supply.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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