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Back of Napkin

Pfizer Inc. PFE

Three-pass checkedFresh as companies report

Pfizer has written off $8.7B of acquired drug programmes in two of the last three quarters.

It holds $976M of cash against $63.1B of debt, and consensus has its revenue falling in 2027.

PFE · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$20$26$31$36$41 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Pfizer discovers, buys and sells prescription medicines. What it actually is right now is a company spending a windfall. The pandemic produced roughly $100B of revenue that will never repeat, and Pfizer used it to buy pipeline, most visibly Seagen for $43B in 2023. The question since has been whether the things it bought work.

The current revenue base is ordinary large pharmaceutical: Eliquis, the anticoagulant it shares with Bristol Myers, at $2.4B a quarter and growing 21%. Vyndaqel for cardiac amyloidosis at $1.8B. Comirnaty and Paxlovid, the two products that produced the windfall, at $261M and $21M respectively, which is what the far side of a pandemic looks like.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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