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Back of Napkin

McCormick & Company, Incorporated MKC

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Almost the whole gap is a Mexican business it already half-owned and now consolidates, plus a price increase the consumer is answering by buying less.

MKC · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$43$54$66$77$88 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

McCormick sells the small red-capped tin of paprika and it sells the flavour system inside somebody else's chicken sandwich. The Consumer segment carries the brands people know: McCormick, French's, Frank's RedHot, Lawry's, Old Bay, Cholula, Zatarain's. Flavor Solutions sells seasoning blends, coatings and flavourings to food manufacturers and restaurant chains who mostly do not want their supplier named on the packaging.

The economics are shelf space and formulation lock-in. A grocer allocates the spice aisle once and rarely revisits it, which is worth a great deal. A food manufacturer that has reformulated a product around a specific flavour blend does not casually change suppliers, which is worth more but grows slower.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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