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Back of Napkin

MarketAxess Holdings Inc. MKTX

Three-pass checkedFresh as companies report

At $112.44 the stock has been cut in half from its 52-week high and trades at roughly 13x forward earnings, a multiple that has never been this low for a business that still throws off ≈$370M of free cash flow on a fortress balance sheet.

The asymmetry is whether this is a value trap (a structurally share-losing incumbent in US high-grade credit being priced correctly) or an underearning compounder where new protocols and international growth are quietly replacing the share leaking out the front door; the leading indicators say it is closer to the second than the price implies, but the burden of proof sits squarely on market share.

Key data

ItemValue
SectorElectronic credit-trading venue (FYE Dec, US)
Price$112.44, near 52-week low
52-week range$108.75 to $225.07
Market cap≈$4.0B
Enterprise value≈$3.86B (TTM, net cash)
Revenue (FY25)$849M, +3.8%
EPS (TTM GAAP)≈$8.77
Forward P/E (FY26E ≈$8.26)≈13.6x
Net cash≈$285M (cash $568M less debt $285M)
Dividend yield≈2.7%

MKTX · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$98$150$203$255$307 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

MarketAxess runs the leading electronic request-for-quote marketplace for corporate bonds, connecting roughly 2,000 institutional investor and dealer firms so they can trade credit that historically traded over the phone. Revenue is almost entirely commission-based and is already close to a net basis, so unlike a transaction-fee exchange there is no large pass-through to strip out; the reported $849M for FY25 is the figure consensus tracks. The engine is commission revenue, which carried roughly $735M of the $849M total in FY25, about 86% of revenue, with the rest split across Information Services (market data, around $53M), Post-Trade Services (around $44M), and a small Technology Services line. Within commissions, US credit (high-grade and high-yield corporate bonds) is the historical heart of the franchise and the exact place the competitive pressure is concentrated.

The qualitative fact the financials do not show is the market-share fight. MarketAxess built its moat on the all-to-all Open Trading protocol, but rivals, principally Tradeweb and the bank-backed venues, have taken share in electronic US high-grade, and portfolio trading and dealer-led streaming protocols have shifted where liquidity forms. Estimated US high-grade share has been under pressure, dented in part by a duplicate-reporting quirk in TRACE that inflated reported industry volumes and by heavy new-issue calendars that pull activity off secondary platforms. What changed in the last two quarters is the offsetting growth: Q1 2026 delivered record total revenue of $233M, up 12%, driven by 20% growth outside US credit, a 35% jump in block-trading average daily volume, and US credit portfolio-trading share rising to 19.8% from 18.8%. The franchise is leaking share in its oldest product while growing in newer protocols and geographies, and the stock price is betting the leak wins.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04The linchpins
  5. 05Closing
  6. 06Methodology

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