ARBack of Napkin
Ares Management Corporation ARES
Ares raised a record $36.4B in a single quarter, sits on a record $170B of dry powder, and the share count that funds all this growth has risen 18% in two years.
The setup turns on who the growth is for: fee earnings per firm are compounding at 20%-plus while the per-share owner receives that growth net of relentless issuance, at 24 times earnings.
ARES · price with moving averages
Source: market data.
The business
Ares is the credit specialist among the big alternative managers: two thirds of its $671.3B rides in private credit strategies, direct lending above all, where insurance companies and pensions have redirected their bond allocations. The firm charges management fees on $409.9B of fee-paying assets, and its earnings mix is the steadiest in the group because credit funds charge on deployed capital continuously rather than waiting on exits. The moat is origination scale: middle-market borrowers come to Ares because it can write the whole loan, and lenders of that size are few. The GCP acquisition last year bolted on real assets and digital infrastructure, data centers being the new collateral of choice.
Inside the complete Back of Napkin
- 01The business
- 02The numbers
- 03Management
- 04How it fails or surprises you
- 05The shape of the payoff
- 06Closing thoughts
- 07Methodology
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