WUBack of Napkin
TeraWulf Inc. WULF
The bet you're really making is that TeraWulf stops being a bitcoin miner and becomes a landlord for artificial-intelligence computers, renting buildings full of chips next to cheap power in upstate New York. You're betting the giant customers it has signed, one backed by Google, pay for years, because the company borrowed about $3 billion and is spending it on buildings that earn nothing until tenants move in. Right now it looks shaky: sales are lower than a year ago, the mining part earns less on every dollar, and the reported losses are enormous. You pay 52 times sales, near the most this stock has ever cost, for a profit nobody expects before 2028.
Key data
WULF · price with moving averages
Source: market data.
The business
TeraWulf runs Lake Mariner, a data center campus on a former power-plant site in western New York, wired to grid power that is cheap and largely carbon-free. Until 2025 it did one thing: run rows of specialized computers around the clock guessing numbers to earn bitcoin, a business whose revenue swings with the coin price and gets harder every time the network grows. The pivot is to rent that same power and land to companies that need somewhere to plug in Nvidia chips for AI. TeraWulf signed multi-year hosting deals, the marquee one with Fluidstack carrying a payment guarantee from Google, and is racing to pour concrete and hang transformers before the tenants arrive. The moat, if there is one, is the power: interconnected capacity at a low rate is scarce, and a signed tenant with a Google backstop is hard to dislodge. What you hold today is mostly a construction site with a bitcoin mine attached.
Inside the complete Back of Napkin
- 01The business
- 02The numbers
- 03Management
- 04How it fails or surprises you
- 05Closing thoughts
- 06Methodology
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