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Blue Owl Capital Inc. OWL

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Blue Owl's fee growth has been cut in half in eighteen months, from 24% to 8%, and the market has answered by cutting the stock 39% and leaving a 7.8% dividend yield on the table.

The setup turns on which is mispriced: a permanent-capital fee machine at 13 times earnings, or a deceleration the yield is paying you to ignore.

OWL · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$7$12$17$23$28 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Blue Owl manages $319.0B across three engines: direct lending, net-lease real estate, and GP stakes, minority positions in other private-market firms, plus a young digital-infrastructure arm. The distinguishing feature is permanence: $225.0B, 85% of fee revenue, comes from capital that never has to be returned, so fees recur like software subscriptions rather than fund cycles. That is the moat, locked revenue, and it is why the firm pays out a fixed $0.92 annual dividend rather than a variable one. The structural cost is complexity: an Up-C entity with founder share classes, and a share count that has grown 44% in two years as deals and compensation are settled in stock.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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