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Back of Napkin

AbbVie Inc. ABBV

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Skyrizi and Rinvoq together did $8.03B last quarter, growing 15%. Humira did $756M.

The drug that once earned $21B a year is now 4% of the company, and almost nobody noticed it happen.

ABBV · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$128$165$202$238$275 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

AbbVie sells four things. Immunology is the company: Skyrizi for psoriasis and Crohn's, Rinvoq for rheumatoid arthritis and a widening list of conditions, and Humira, the biggest-selling drug in pharmaceutical history, now in managed decline against biosimilars. Neuroscience is Vraylar and the therapeutic use of Botox. Oncology is a portfolio in slow decline. Aesthetics is cosmetic Botox and fillers, sold to dermatologists and med spas.

The whole corporate story of the last five years was whether the two successors could replace Humira before the patent cliff took it. That question is now answered.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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