TABack of Napkin
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. TARS
The bet you're really making is that Tarsus keeps selling more Xdemvy, the eye drops that kill the mites living at the base of people's eyelashes, and that most of the roughly 25 million Americans who have the problem still have not been treated. You're betting it can keep spending heavily to find those patients and still come out ahead. Right now it is going well, with one thing to watch: the biggest sales quarter ever, up 69% in a year, but the loss grew instead of shrinking as the company poured money into advertising. You pay about 19 times what analysts think it will earn in 2028, near the richest the stock has been since it listed in 2020.
Key data
TARS · price with moving averages
Source: market data.
The business
Tarsus sells one drug that matters: Xdemvy, a prescription eye drop cleared by the FDA in July 2023 for Demodex blepharitis, an itchy, crusty eyelid condition caused by microscopic mites that colonize the lash line and leave tell-tale waxy collars at the base of the lashes. It is the first and only drug approved for the condition. A patient uses it twice a day for six weeks. The active ingredient, lotilaner, is the same mite-and-tick killer sold to veterinarians, licensed from Elanco for human use. It paralyzes the mite by jamming a nerve channel the drug's makers say human cells do not share (Saturn-1, NCT04475432, and Saturn-2, NCT04784091, the two pivotal trials). The moat is plain: Tarsus got there first, holds the patents, and no rival has an approved competitor. An eye-doctor sales force and a heavy direct-to-consumer campaign, the "Time to be seen" ads, do the rest. Behind Xdemvy sit early bets: oral lotilaner to prevent Lyme disease, in the Phase 2a Carpo trial, and a version aimed at rosacea.
Inside the complete Back of Napkin
- 01The business
- 02The numbers
- 03Management
- 04How it fails or surprises you
- 05Closing thoughts
- 06Methodology
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