VKBack of Napkin
Viking Therapeutics, Inc. VKTX
The bet you're really making is that Viking's obesity drug VK2735, delivered as both a weekly injection and a daily pill, works roughly as well as the blockbuster drugs from Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk and captures a meaningful share of a market worth hundreds of billions of dollars. The large late-stage trial that decides everything must show people losing around twenty percent of their body weight without quitting over side effects. The science looks credible and the money is the worry: the company has never sold a product, lost $286 million in the first half of this year, and is burning cash faster than Wall Street modeled. At $4 billion, roughly ten times what the company owns outright, the stock trades at a richer price than it has carried in any of the last twelve years.
Key data
VKTX · price with moving averages
Source: market data.
The business
Viking Therapeutics sells nothing. It is a clinical-stage company with one drug that matters, VK2735, aimed at the largest new market in medicine. VK2735 comes two ways, a weekly injection and a daily pill, and both work the same way as Lilly's Zepbound and Novo's Wegovy, switching on two gut-hormone receptors, GLP-1 and GIP, that tell the body it is full (10-Q, filed 2026-07-29). The injection is the lead, moving through late-stage trials. The pill sits a step behind and is the bigger prize, because an oral obesity drug that actually works is something only Lilly has demonstrated to date based on publicly available data. The mechanism itself is proven and stated in the filing, which is both comfort and threat: comfort because it is de-risked, threat because the field is now crowded with giants. The pivotal weight-loss numbers that will settle the stock are not in this run's evidence, and with no literature search available I found no primary published source to cite for them. Everything Viking is worth rides on those two molecules clearing their trials and then being launched or bought. There is no second act on the shelf.
Inside the complete Back of Napkin
- 01The business
- 02The numbers
- 03Management
- 04How it fails or surprises you
- 05Closing thoughts
- 06Methodology
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