SPBack of Napkin
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. SPCX
SpaceX's first public financials show an $18.7B-revenue business (FY2025) growing 33%, carried by a Starlink engine that alone did $11.4B of sales at roughly $4.4B of segment operating profit, all wrapped inside a $2.6B consolidated operating loss and a free-cash outflow that reached $25.0B in the first half of 2026 as Starship and the next Starlink generation absorbed $28.5B of capex.
At about $1.58T enterprise value you are paying roughly 84x trailing sales (FY2025) and near 58x a forward run-rate for a company with no consolidated profit and deep cash burn, so the asymmetry is not cheapness; it is whether Starlink's cash machine plus Starship optionality compounds into a telecom-scale-or-larger free-cash base before a multiple that already prices the right tail gets a reason to de-rate.
Key data
The business
SpaceX sells two things that look like different companies bolted together. Launch (Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, and now Starship) carries satellites, cargo, and crew for NASA, national-security customers, and commercial operators. Starlink sells satellite broadband to consumers, enterprises, maritime and aviation accounts, and, through Starshield, to government users. The engine doing most of the work today is Starlink: about $11.4B of FY2025 revenue, 61% of the $18.7B total, at roughly $4.4B of segment operating profit and near 48% growth, per the IPO prospectus. Launch is the smaller, lumpier line at roughly $4.2B external, and most Falcon flights now carry Starlink's own satellites rather than outside payloads, so the two segments increasingly fund and feed each other.
The thing the statements do not show is that the consolidated loss is a choice, not a deterioration. Gross margin has climbed from 41% in 2023 to 49% in 2025 and about 53% in the first half of 2026 as Starlink scales and Falcon reuse compounds. The red ink sits below the gross line: research and development more than doubled to $8.6B in 2025 for Starship, and capital spending hit $20.7B, then $28.5B in the first half of 2026 alone. Operations throw off cash (operating cash flow was $6.8B in 2025); the burn is the reinvestment. What changed this year is the June IPO, which converted the old preferred stack and left roughly $100B of cash and short-term investments on the balance sheet.
Inside the complete Back of Napkin
- 01The business
- 02The numbers
- 03Management
- 04The linchpins
- 05Closing
- 06Methodology
Continue with SPCX
Get the complete Back of Napkin free.
Choose this as your free complete report. No card required.
Read the complete reportAlready a member? Sign in


