STBack of Napkin
STMicroelectronics N.V. STM
STMicroelectronics is the largest European chipmaker, and after a two-year industrial downcycle that took earnings to near-zero, the stock has run from $21 to $79 in roughly a year as the market prices the recovery before the income statement shows it.
You are paying about 63x next-year earnings and 22x three-years-out for a cyclical exiting its trough; the asymmetry is whether the power, automotive-MCU, and sensor stack compounds back toward prior-peak earnings, or whether the stock has already discounted the recovery it has not yet delivered.
Key data
STM · price with moving averages
Source: market data.
The business
STMicroelectronics designs and manufactures semiconductors across three divisions: the Automotive and Discrete Group (power transistors, silicon-carbide and IGBT power devices, automotive ICs), the Analog, MEMS and Sensors Group (MEMS inertial and optical sensors, analog and power ICs, the recently acquired NXP MEMS sensor line), and the Microcontrollers and Digital ICs Group (general-purpose and secure MCUs, the Stellar automotive compute family, RF). Buyers are automotive OEMs and tier-one suppliers, industrial and factory-automation customers, and personal-electronics makers, sold through distributors and direct. The engine is the automotive and power franchise: automotive plus power and discrete is the largest revenue block and the segment driving the recovery, with sensors layered on at structurally higher gross margins.
The fact the financials understate is that this is a multi-speed cyclical recovery, not a single inflection. Automotive turned up first, helped by silicon-carbide content per vehicle and the Stellar MCU ramp; industrial, the segment that punished ST hardest through FY24 and FY25, is the laggard and has not clearly inflected. The NXP MEMS sensor acquisition that closed in early 2026 adds roughly $400M of annual sensor revenue at low-50s gross margins, lifting the blended mix. ST is one of a handful of Western silicon-carbide power leaders, and its Italian SiC fab gives it European-supply credibility under the EU Chips Act, which matters to OEMs diversifying away from Asian supply.
Inside the complete Back of Napkin
- 01The business
- 02The numbers
- 03Management
- 04The linchpins
- 05Closing
- 06Methodology
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