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Back of Napkin

Palantir Technologies Inc. PLTR

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Palantir's revenue grew 93% last quarter, and its contracted future business doubled from $5.4B to $11.2B in a year.

It is priced at $403.9B, which is 49 times next year's expected revenue and about 110 times next year's expected earnings.

PLTR · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$-3$52$106$161$216 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Palantir sells software that pulls an organisation's scattered data into one place and lets people act on it. Gotham serves defence and intelligence agencies. Foundry serves companies. AIP, the newest layer, puts language models on top of both and is what turned a slow-growing government contractor into the fastest-growing large software company in the market.

The customer split matters more than the product split. United States government work was $809M last quarter and United States commercial $764M, with international making up the remainder at roughly $362M. The government half is sticky and slow to win; the commercial half is what determines whether this becomes a large software company or stays a defence contractor with better margins.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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