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Back of Napkin

Strategy Inc MSTR

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Strategy owns 846,000 bitcoin that cost $63.9B and are carried at $49.7B, so the position is roughly $14.3B underwater.

The preferred stock issued to buy those coins now demands about $1.7B of dividends a year, against a software business that will do under $500M of revenue.

MSTR · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$-1$116$233$350$467 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Two things sit inside this ticker and only one of them is an operating company. Strategy sells enterprise analytics and business-intelligence software to a long-standing corporate installed base, which produces roughly $122M a quarter and is shrinking in relevance every time the company issues stock. The other thing is a bitcoin treasury funded with equity, convertible notes and five series of preferred stock, run on the premise that raising capital above net asset value and buying coins makes existing holders richer per share.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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