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The Trade Desk, Inc. TTD

Three-pass checkedFresh as companies report

The Trade Desk grew revenue 3.0% last quarter, down from 25.4% five quarters earlier, and the shares have fallen 76% to $13.27.

The sell side now models revenue declining in each of the next two years, which for a company that compounded above 20% for a decade is a different security entirely.

TTD · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$3$40$76$113$149 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

The Trade Desk runs the software advertising buyers use to purchase digital inventory. An agency logs in, sets a budget and targeting, and the platform bids in real time across connected television, display, audio and mobile. The Trade Desk takes a cut of the spend and never owns the inventory, which is the whole appeal: it is the buyer's agent rather than a seller with its own inventory to push.

That independence was the moat. It is now the vulnerability, because the largest sellers have built their own buying tools.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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