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Back of Napkin

Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. HLF

Three-pass checkedFiled since 2026-08-05

Written 2026-07-07. The company has filed a quarterly or annual report since, on 2026-08-05, so figures here predate its latest disclosure.

Herbalife trades at 5.7x earnings and 3.6x free cash flow with a $1.37B market cap on $5.0B of revenue, a business the market has priced for terminal decline while it quietly delevers.

The asymmetry is a shrinking-but-cash-gushing MLM paying down debt fast enough that equity value compounds even at zero revenue growth; a deleveraging trade, not a growth story.

Key data

Sector / industryConsumer Defensive / Packaged Foods (MLM channel)
Price · 52w range$13.21 · $7.56 to $20.40
Market cap · EV$1.37B · $1.08B
FY25 revenue · EPS (diluted)$5.04B · $2.20
TTM EPS · P/E$2.31 · 5.7x
FCF per share · P/FCF$3.60 · 3.7x
Gross margin · EBIT margin TTM75.9% · 9.8%
Total debt · Cash · Net debt$374M · $450M · net cash
Book value per sharenegative $4.25 (buyback-driven)
Dividendnone

HLF · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$4$8$13$17$21 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Herbalife sells weight-management shakes, protein powders, teas, and supplements through a multi-level distributor network across roughly 90 countries. Revenue is diversified geographically, with North America, Latin America (Mexico is the single largest country), EMEA, and Asia Pacific each contributing meaningful slices; no single region carries the franchise. The engine that matters is the distributor base: independent distributors and preferred customers who both consume the product and recruit the next layer. Distributor productivity, not shelf placement or advertising, drives the top line. FY25 revenue of $5.04B was up 0.9% versus FY24's $4.99B, a stabilization after years of gradual decline from the 2021 peak near $5.8B.

The qualitative fact the financials do not show: this is a business the FTC extracted a $200M settlement from in 2016 over deceptive earnings claims, that Bill Ackman spent five years and hundreds of millions shorting as a pyramid scheme, and that still carries structural questions about distributor economics. What has changed is the demographic mix and the channel: nutrition clubs (physical locations run by distributors) now anchor a meaningful share of volume in Latin America and among Hispanic communities in the US, giving the model a community-anchored retail feel that the older door-to-door MLM shape lacked. GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are the visible overhang; management's counter is that shakes complement rather than compete with pharmacotherapy. That thesis is unproven.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04The linchpins
  5. 05Closing
  6. 06Methodology

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