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Back of Napkin

Alibaba Group Holding Limited BABA

Three-pass checkedFresh as companies report

Alibaba is a Chinese e-commerce cash cow funding the most ambitious vertically integrated AI cloud build in the country, and the equity is priced as if the e-commerce engine has stopped growing while the AI optionality is free.

Today's Cloud Summit (Qwen 3.7-Max, Panjiu AL128 supernode, Zhenwu M890 with 560,000 units already shipped) hardens the bull case from "narrative" to "deployed scale" without yet showing up in the printed earnings.

Key data

Sector / industryCommunication Services / Internet (with cloud + retail)
FYE / countryMarch / China. 1 ADS = 8 ordinary shares. Financials in RMB.
Price · 52w range$135.75 · $103.71 to $192.67
Mkt cap · EV≈$315B · ≈$300B (net cash on listed securities; net debt against cash + ST investments)
TTM FY26 (Mar '26)Revenue $148.4B, GAAP NI $15.35B, non-GAAP NI $8.79B (-62% YoY)
Forward P/E (FY27E / FY28E)20.6x / 15.1x
Consensus 12mo PT$190.69 (n=41), ~+41% to spot
Right-tail leverCloud Intelligence growing 38% with AI mix at 30% and rising

BABA · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$60$94$129$163$198 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Alibaba runs two engines that used to share a P&L story and now have separated. Taobao and Tmall Group is the toll booth on 900M+ Chinese consumers and still contributes the majority of adjusted EBITA in normal quarters; merchants pay commission and ad take-rate for access to the largest consumer attention pool in China, and the moat is the 23-year accumulated logistics, payment, and trust infrastructure. Alibaba Cloud is the second engine, now the largest Chinese public cloud, the country's most-used foundation model (Qwen at 300M MAU and 35.8% AI cloud share), and as of today a custom training-and-inference chip (Zhenwu) with 560,000+ units already shipped to 400+ enterprise customers across 20 industries. Cainiao logistics, AIDC international commerce (AliExpress, Lazada, Trendyol), and the Ant Group 33% stake round out the corporate structure.

The engine: domestic commerce (Taobao Tmall Group plus China's domestic e-commerce ancillaries) generated roughly 60% of FY26 revenue and the overwhelming majority of EBITA when not absorbing the Taobao Instant Commerce delivery losses that distorted Q4 FY26. Cloud is 20% of revenue and growing 38% YoY at the segment-EBITA level, small enough to be ignored by the multiple, large enough to re-rate the equity if the trajectory holds.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03The linchpins
  4. 04Closing
  5. 05Methodology

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