Bristol-Myers Squibb Company BMY

The business

Bristol Myers sells cancer and cardiovascular drugs, and it is in the middle of the most telegraphed patent cliff in the industry. Revlimid, Eliquis and the original intravenous Opdivo are the legacy: enormous, profitable, and running out. Against them the company has assembled what it calls the Growth Portfolio, led by the subcutaneous version of Opdivo, plus Reblozyl for anaemia, Camzyos for cardiomyopathy, Breyanzi and Opdualag.

The whole investment question is arithmetic. Does the new half grow faster than the old half declines, and does it get there before the cliff finishes. The company has been reporting the two halves separately for years precisely because that is the question.