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Back of Napkin

Walmart Inc. WMT

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Walmart's US comparable sales halved last quarter, from 4.6% a year ago to 2.6%, while operating income jumped 28.8%.

The margin came partly from tariff refunds the company declines to quantify, in a quarter where Target disclosed its own refund at $994M.

WMT · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$44$68$92$116$141 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Walmart sells groceries, general merchandise and health products out of roughly 10,900 stores in 19 countries, at prices low enough that scale is the only defence. Roughly 60% of US revenue is food, which is what brings people in weekly. Bolted on top are three businesses that look nothing like retail: advertising sold against shopper data, a marketplace where third parties sell through Walmart's platform, and Walmart+ memberships. Those grow far faster than the stores and carry far better margins.

Sam's Club is a separate warehouse-club format with its own membership economics.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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