UNBack of Napkin
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated UNH
UnitedHealth's operating income collapsed to $380M in the December quarter, from $5.15B a year earlier, and has since recovered to $7.99B.
The repair is real and it was bought by shedding members: Medicare Advantage enrolment fell 9.4% and Medicaid 9.5% in twelve months.
UNH · price with moving averages
Source: market data.
The business
UnitedHealth is two companies. UnitedHealthcare sells health insurance and collects premiums, mostly through employers, Medicare Advantage and state Medicaid contracts. Optum is everything else: physician practices it owns, the pharmacy benefit manager that negotiates drug prices, and a data and technology arm. Optum is roughly 59% of revenue.
The whole business turns on one ratio. Premiums come in at a price fixed a year ahead, and medical costs go out at whatever they turn out to be. The gap is the profit.
Inside the complete Back of Napkin
- 01The business
- 02The numbers
- 03Management
- 04How it fails or surprises you
- 05The shape of the payoff
- 06Closing thoughts
- 07Methodology
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