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Back of Napkin

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated UNH

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UnitedHealth's operating income collapsed to $380M in the December quarter, from $5.15B a year earlier, and has since recovered to $7.99B.

The repair is real and it was bought by shedding members: Medicare Advantage enrolment fell 9.4% and Medicaid 9.5% in twelve months.

UNH · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$208$317$427$536$646 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

UnitedHealth is two companies. UnitedHealthcare sells health insurance and collects premiums, mostly through employers, Medicare Advantage and state Medicaid contracts. Optum is everything else: physician practices it owns, the pharmacy benefit manager that negotiates drug prices, and a data and technology arm. Optum is roughly 59% of revenue.

The whole business turns on one ratio. Premiums come in at a price fixed a year ahead, and medical costs go out at whatever they turn out to be. The gap is the profit.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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