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Back of Napkin

Blackstone Inc. BX

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Blackstone runs $1.35 trillion and just grew distributable profit 26% in a quarter, yet its base management fees, the annuity everything else stands on, grew 4.5%.

The setup turns on that gap: whether the fee annuity reaccelerates as flagship funds turn back on, or whether the biggest brand in private markets has quietly become a mid-single-digit fee grower wearing a 23-times multiple.

BX · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$81$113$144$176$208 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Blackstone gathers long-term capital, pension money, insurance balance sheets, and increasingly individual investors, locks it into private equity, real estate, credit and infrastructure funds, and charges a management fee on committed capital plus a share of profits above a hurdle. The industry's scoreboard has two lines: fee-related earnings, the recurring toll on assets, and distributable earnings, the toll plus realized profit shares. The moat is the brand and the distribution machine, the default first call for any institution allocating a billion dollars, now pointed at retail and insurance channels where the assets are stickier and the fees perpetual.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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