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Back of Napkin

Moelis & Company MC

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Three years ago Moelis lost money for a full year; last quarter it set a Q2 revenue record, and that round trip is the entire risk profile of the stock in one sentence.

The setup turns on operating leverage running in your favor: a firm with no debt, no goodwill and a comp bill that just fell three points is pure torque on the deal cycle, in both directions.

MC · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$37$48$59$71$82 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Moelis is advisory in its distilled form: no markets desk, no lending, no funds business, just merger, restructuring and capital-markets advice sold by managing directors Ken Moelis has recruited for two decades. The customer is a board or a sponsor paying a success fee measured in millions per deal. The moat is the bench, and the current expansion says so: six managing directors joined this year across private credit secondaries, energy, chemicals and healthcare technology, with six more committed. The balance sheet is $481.1M of cash and short-term investments against no debt and no goodwill, the cleanest in the group.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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