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Back of Napkin

Baidu, Inc. BIDU

Three-pass checkedFresh as companies report

At $132 a share you're paying $44.9B for roughly $26B of net cash and investments plus an $18B-EV operating business, where AI Cloud revenue compounded 79% YoY and GPU Cloud 184% YoY on the most recent print.

The asymmetry is the slow re-rate from China-ad value trap to underearning AI-infrastructure compounder with a yield; yield-plus-optionality, not moonshot growth.

Key data

Sector / IndustryCommunication Services / Internet Content & Information
Country / FYEChina (Cayman ADR) / December 31
Price (2026-05-21)$131.97, down 2.4% on the day
52-week range$81.17 to $165.30
Market cap$44.9B (≈345M ADS; each ADS = 8 Class A ordinary shares)
Operating EV (ex cash + investments)≈$18.7B
TTM revenue (USD)≈$18.0B
Net cash + investments≈$26.2B (≈58% of market cap)
FY2026E consensusRevenue $18.8B; GAAP EPS $7.47 per ADS
Forward P/E (FY26E)17.7x GAAP; ≈10 to 12x on non-GAAP

BIDU · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$71$95$119$144$168 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Baidu sells two things wrapped in one ADR: a fading Chinese search-advertising monopoly (the cash cow) and a fast-growing AI Cloud plus autonomous-driving stack (the option). Today's engine is AI-related revenue inside Baidu Core, which crossed 52% of Core's General Business segment for the first time on the Q1 2026 print at roughly RMB 13.6B, up 49% YoY, with AI Cloud Infrastructure up 79% YoY and GPU Cloud up 184% YoY. iQIYI is a 50.4%-owned listed subsidiary best treated as a sum-of-parts (SOTP) stub; search advertising is in measured secular decline as Chinese user attention shifts to Douyin, WeChat in-app search, and Tmall. Rolled up, the 20% of the business doing 80% of the right-tail work is AI Cloud Infrastructure plus Apollo Go robotaxi, roughly $3.5 to $4B of run-rate revenue compounding 40 to 80% inside an $18B total business.

The qualitative fact the financials don't show but the math needs: Baidu is one of three Chinese players (with Huawei and Alibaba) running a domestically-fabricated AI stack from chip to model to cloud to autonomy, and that vertical integration is structurally captive because Nvidia top-tier silicon is export-controlled and US hyperscalers are walled out of sensitive Chinese workloads. What changed in the last two quarters: GPU Cloud revenue growth accelerated from triple-digit YoY in Q4 2025 to 184% in Q1 2026; Apollo Go ran 3.2M fully driverless rides in Q1 and crossed 22M cumulative rides through April; the Dubai standalone-app launch was the first commercial autonomous-ride-hailing footprint by any Chinese player outside China.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04The linchpins
  5. 05Closing
  6. 06Methodology

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