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Back of Napkin

HF Sinclair Corporation DINO

Three-pass checkedFiled since 2026-07-30

Written 2026-06-15. The company has filed a quarterly or annual report since, on 2026-07-30, so figures here predate its latest disclosure.

HF Sinclair is a five-segment Western US refiner priced at 7.6x forward earnings and roughly 5.3x EV to EBITDA, where the refining engine threw off a $648M net-income quarter in Q1 2026 against a breakeven quarter a year earlier.

The asymmetry is whether the diversified downstream stack (lubricants, midstream, marketing, renewables) deserves a turn of multiple above pure-play refiners, or whether the market is right to price it like the cyclical crack-spread bet it has always been.

Key data

Sector / industryEnergy / Oil and Gas Refining and Marketing
Price (6/15/26) / 52w range$67.25 / $39.08 to $74.73
Market cap / EV (TTM)$12.1B / $14.2B
FY25 revenue / diluted EPS$26.9B / $3.11
TTM revenue / diluted EPS$27.6B / $6.66
Forward P/E (FY26E EPS $8.80)7.6x
EV/EBITDA (TTM / FY26E)5.3x / 5.3x
Net debt / leverage$2.25B / 0.78x TTM EBITDA
Dividend / yield$0.50/q ($2.00 annual) / 3.0%

DINO · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$22$42$63$84$105 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

HF Sinclair makes and sells refined fuels (gasoline, diesel, jet) plus renewable diesel, lubricants and specialty products, and asphalt, run across five reporting segments: Refining, Renewables, Lubricants and Specialties, Midstream, and Marketing. The refineries sit in Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming, feeding the Southwest, Rockies, and Pacific Northwest, plus roughly 1,300 independently owned Sinclair-branded stations and about 300 more licensed. The engine is Refining: refined product and transportation fuels together drove the bulk of the $26.9B FY25 top line, with Lubricants and Specialties a steady $2.3B revenue contributor and crude resale and logistics making up the rest. Refining is also where almost all the cyclicality lives, which is why a single strong quarter swings the whole company.

The qualitative fact the financials understate is the structural margin lift from owning the former Holly Energy midstream outright. When that infrastructure was a partially owned public partnership, the parent paid third-party distribution rates on logistics and storage; consolidating it pulls those margins inside the enterprise rather than showing up as a visible accretion line. The change in the last two quarters that matters to the math is the Q1 2026 inflection: net income of $648M and diluted EPS of $3.56 versus a roughly breakeven Q1 2025, lifting the trailing twelve-month figure off a trough that included a small Q4 2025 GAAP loss. That single quarter is most of why the stock sits near the top of its 52-week range.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04The linchpins
  5. 05Closing
  6. 06Methodology

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