Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. BBVA

The business

BBVA is a retail and commercial bank headquartered in Bilbao, but the earnings live in emerging markets. In H1 2026 the group made EUR 6.05B of net attributable profit, up 11.1%, and the engine is Mexico (BBVA Bancomer): EUR 2.98B of net profit, about 44% of the roughly EUR 6.75B that the business areas earned before the corporate center, growing 8.2% and the single largest contributor. Spain is the stable base at EUR 2.17B (about 32%, up 2.3%). Turkey (Garanti) added EUR 532M, South America EUR 556M, and the rest-of-business unit EUR 508M. So the shape is a Spanish name whose profit center is Mexican, with a long EM tail.

The thing the headline profit does not show is that the geography is simultaneously the profit and the risk. Mexico runs a 3.26% cost of risk against Spain's 0.31%, so the segment doing most of the work is also where the credit losses live, and the peso plus the Banxico rate path swing how those pesos translate into reported euros. Turkey and Argentina are accounted under IAS 29 hyperinflation rules, which distorts nominal growth (Turkish loans up 41.6% in local currency is partly inflation, not real share gain). What changed in the last two quarters matters more than any single line: the Sabadell takeover collapsed in October 2025 after only 25.5% of Sabadell holders accepted, well below the 50.01% needed, ending an 18-month overhang and the associated dilution and integration risk. Management pivoted straight back to organic capital return.