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Back of Napkin

Equifax Inc. EFX

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The Work Number was supposed to be the growth engine. Last quarter it grew 7% while the ordinary credit bureau next to it grew 17%.

EFX · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$142$186$231$275$319 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Equifax sells three things. Workforce Solutions is the payroll database, built by getting employers to hand over salary and employment records so that lenders, landlords and government agencies can verify income without calling anyone. That is The Work Number, and it is the asset nobody else has at scale. United States Information Solutions is the credit bureau, the ordinary business of scoring consumers and selling that score to whoever underwrites them. International is the same two ideas run in twenty other countries.

The economics differ sharply. The payroll data is contributed by employers for free and resold many times, which is why it has always carried the premium. The bureau is a duopoly-plus-one utility with real pricing power and no mystery to it. For most of a decade the first grew faster than the second, and the multiple was built on that ordering.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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