BID TerminalOpen complete report
Research library Industrials & Energy

Back of Napkin

Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation BAH

Three-pass checkedFiled since 2026-07-24

Written 2026-07-09. The company has filed a quarterly or annual report since, on 2026-07-24, so figures here predate its latest disclosure.

At $62.83 Booz Allen has fallen about 48% from its $120.05 high, back near where it traded in 2021, even as total backlog hit a record $38B and trailing book-to-bill held at 1.1x.

You are paying roughly 10x forward earnings and a low-teens free-cash-flow yield for a mission-critical AI and cyber federal franchise whose revenue just fell 6%; the asymmetry is whether US government demand is structurally impaired or only in a budget-cut air-pocket.

Key data

SectorGovernment and defense consulting
Fiscal year end / domicileMar 31 / United States
Price / 52w range$62.83 ($59.50 to $120.05)
Market cap / EV$7.55B / $11.0B (net debt ≈$3.4B)
FY26 revenue$11.2B (down 6.4%)
FY27E adjusted EPS (guidance)$6.00 to $6.35
Forward P/E (FY27E)≈10.2x
EV/EBITDA (TTM)9.0x
Backlog / TTM book-to-bill$38B / 1.1x
Dividend + buyback3.6% dividend + ≈$0.6B repurchase

BAH · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$53$88$123$158$193 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Booz Allen sells consulting and technology work (artificial intelligence, cyber, digital, engineering, and analytics) almost entirely to the US federal government, which supplies nearly all of its revenue. The book splits by end market, and on the most recent clean disclosure that was Defense at 47% of revenue, Civil at 34%, and Intelligence at 17%, with a small global commercial remainder. The engine right now is Defense and Intelligence together, roughly 64% of revenue, which grew mid-single-digits in FY26; the Civil book, around 30% of revenue, is where the damage sits, down double-digits as federal agencies slowed spending. By contract type the mix is cost-reimbursable at 59% of revenue, time-and-materials at 22%, and fixed-price at 19%, so most of the book is cost-plus work tied directly to agency funding decisions.

The qualitative fact the financials do not show is that essentially every dollar depends on federal appropriations and the pace of procurement, both of which seized up in the last year. A DOGE-style government-efficiency drive slowed awards and funding, which reduced billable headcount and billable expenses and drove the 6.4% revenue decline, and the fallout from the Charles Littlejohn tax-data breach cost Booz Allen a $21M Treasury contract cancellation in January 2026, a reputational overhang across the federal client base. What changed most recently is the mix of leading indicators: quarterly book-to-bill dipped to 0.9x in the fourth quarter even as the trailing-twelve-month figure held at 1.1x and backlog set a record at $38B, so demand is being awarded faster than it is converting into current revenue. The security-cleared workforce and that backlog are the ballast under the story.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04The linchpins
  5. 05Closing
  6. 06Methodology

Continue with BAH

Get the complete Back of Napkin free.

Choose this as your free complete report. No card required.

Read the complete report