FOBack of Napkin
Shift4 Payments, Inc. FOUR
Written 2026-07-27. The company has filed a quarterly or annual report since, on 2026-08-06, so figures here predate its latest disclosure.
At $50.33 you are paying 7.9x FY26E adjusted earnings and a 13.4% free-cash-flow yield (TTM, on market cap) for a payments company that grew gross revenue 32% last quarter and is guiding to 26% to 31% growth in its core revenue metric this year; the stock is down more than half from its 52-week high of $108.50.
The market is pricing the Global Blue debt load, the founder's exit to NASA, and the payments-disruption narrative as a broken story; the wager is that a 3.9x-levered integration simply executes on plan, and the first falsification test is the August 4 Q2 print.
Key data
FOUR · price with moving averages
Source: market data.
The business
Shift4 sells the full payment stack to what management calls the experience economy: restaurants, hotels, stadiums, resorts, and increasingly international retail. A merchant takes the SkyTab point-of-sale system or one of Shift4's venue platforms, and Shift4 processes every card tap that flows through it, keeping a slice of the volume. The engine is end-to-end payment volume with software attached: gross profit reached 34.2% of gross revenue in FY25, up from 23.6% in FY22, as software-attached merchants replaced lower-margin legacy gateway ones, and payment volume grew 24% year over year in Q1 2026 per management's call. The moat, in one sentence, is the switching cost of ripping out an installed point-of-sale system that runs the whole restaurant or venue; whether that holds for twenty years is a separate audit.
What the financials understate is how much the company changed in twelve months. The Global Blue acquisition closed in July 2025 at roughly a $2.5B enterprise price, funded with new debt plus $1B of 6% mandatory convertible preferred, and brought the dominant tax-free-shopping and dynamic-currency-conversion network across 70,000-plus European and Asian merchants. Founder Jared Isaacman, who built the company from 1999, handed the CEO seat to longtime deputy Taylor Lauber in mid-2025 amid his NASA administrator nomination, while retaining super-voting control. And on the disruption narrative that has crushed every acquirer multiple: Shift4 launched its own stablecoin settlement platform in December 2025, letting merchants opt into USDC or USDT settlement across seven chains, and on July 14 shipped Shift4 One, a single handheld combining payments, currency conversion, and tax-free shopping. Q1 2026 gross revenue grew 32.1% despite travel disruption from the Middle East conflict; international revenue grew 51% per the call.
Inside the complete Back of Napkin
- 01The business
- 02The numbers
- 03Management
- 04The linchpins
- 05Closing
- 06Methodology
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