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Back of Napkin

Shift4 Payments, Inc. FOUR

Three-pass checkedFiled since 2026-08-06

Written 2026-07-27. The company has filed a quarterly or annual report since, on 2026-08-06, so figures here predate its latest disclosure.

At $50.33 you are paying 7.9x FY26E adjusted earnings and a 13.4% free-cash-flow yield (TTM, on market cap) for a payments company that grew gross revenue 32% last quarter and is guiding to 26% to 31% growth in its core revenue metric this year; the stock is down more than half from its 52-week high of $108.50.

The market is pricing the Global Blue debt load, the founder's exit to NASA, and the payments-disruption narrative as a broken story; the wager is that a 3.9x-levered integration simply executes on plan, and the first falsification test is the August 4 Q2 print.

Key data

ItemValue
Sector / listingPayments, acquirer + vertical software; NYSE
Price$50.33
52-week range$34.56 to $108.50
Market cap$4.58B
Enterprise value≈$9.1B (incl. preferred + minority)
TTM revenue (through Q1 2026)$4.45B, gross basis
TTM GAAP diluted EPS (through Q1 2026)$0.82
Forward P/E (FY26E, adjusted)7.9x
Net debt (MRQ, derived)$3.35B; 3.9x TTM EBITDA
Analyst PT consensus$57.18

FOUR · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$31$56$80$104$128 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Shift4 sells the full payment stack to what management calls the experience economy: restaurants, hotels, stadiums, resorts, and increasingly international retail. A merchant takes the SkyTab point-of-sale system or one of Shift4's venue platforms, and Shift4 processes every card tap that flows through it, keeping a slice of the volume. The engine is end-to-end payment volume with software attached: gross profit reached 34.2% of gross revenue in FY25, up from 23.6% in FY22, as software-attached merchants replaced lower-margin legacy gateway ones, and payment volume grew 24% year over year in Q1 2026 per management's call. The moat, in one sentence, is the switching cost of ripping out an installed point-of-sale system that runs the whole restaurant or venue; whether that holds for twenty years is a separate audit.

What the financials understate is how much the company changed in twelve months. The Global Blue acquisition closed in July 2025 at roughly a $2.5B enterprise price, funded with new debt plus $1B of 6% mandatory convertible preferred, and brought the dominant tax-free-shopping and dynamic-currency-conversion network across 70,000-plus European and Asian merchants. Founder Jared Isaacman, who built the company from 1999, handed the CEO seat to longtime deputy Taylor Lauber in mid-2025 amid his NASA administrator nomination, while retaining super-voting control. And on the disruption narrative that has crushed every acquirer multiple: Shift4 launched its own stablecoin settlement platform in December 2025, letting merchants opt into USDC or USDT settlement across seven chains, and on July 14 shipped Shift4 One, a single handheld combining payments, currency conversion, and tax-free shopping. Q1 2026 gross revenue grew 32.1% despite travel disruption from the Middle East conflict; international revenue grew 51% per the call.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04The linchpins
  5. 05Closing
  6. 06Methodology

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