CSBack of Napkin
Constellation Software Inc. CSU.TO
You are paying about C$3,035 a share for a serial acquirer that turns roughly one dollar in five of revenue into free cash and redeploys it at high teens returns on invested capital, so the whole bet is that Constellation's six operating groups can keep finding small vertical software businesses to buy at prices that still work.
The hinge is not the multiple, it is deployment: at this scale acquisitions have to run north of a billion a year just to move the needle, and the market is arguing about whether that pipeline is drying up or simply lumpy.
Key data
CSU.TO · price with moving averages
Source: market data.
The business
Constellation buys small vertical market software companies, the kind that run a dental lab in Ohio or a municipal utility in Norway, and holds them forever. About 69,000 employees sit inside more than a thousand of these businesses, organized into six operating groups that each run their own M&A. The software is mission critical, sticky, and priced below the pain of switching, which is why maintenance and recurring revenue compound quietly at mid-single digits organically while acquisitions do the rest. The moat is the decentralized capital allocation machine itself: a trained bench of operator-acquirers who have done thousands of small deals and know what a $5M ARR practice-management business is worth to the seller and to them.
Inside the complete Back of Napkin
- 01The business
- 02The numbers
- 03Management
- 04How it fails or surprises you
- 05The shape of the payoff
- 06Closing thoughts
- 07Methodology
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