Brazilian Financials: A Loan Can’t Be 90 Days Late Until It’s 90 Days Old

August 19, 2026Written from published researchFull text opens September 18, 2026

Why growth masks future credit risk and the quick read on Brazilian financials.

I hadn’t looked at Brazilian financials in a while and had a few names pop up in my feed.

Over the past 12 months all financials have lagged EWZ as high rates and FX issues plus an election and El Nino weigh on credit and returns. STNE and INTR in particular getting hammered.

To the more positive side, social media has been all over NU and MELI as the mis-priced future winners. Credit is behaving, growth is booming, and nobody sees anything bad on the horizon. MELI obviously an e-comm giant with a new growing finance arm, which is why I’m including it. The debate with MELI is more that they’re running down margin to grow share, while extending credit.

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