What's priced into Enphase Energy, Inc.?
What do you have to believe to make money in Enphase Energy, Inc. at $38.61? The stock trades at 37.9x trailing earnings and the Street expects about 36% growth a year. The question is where do we go from here?
Growth down the side, exit multiple across the top, your five-year annualized return in each cell.
5-year annualized return · growth vs exit multiple
| EPS growth ↓ · Exit multiple → | 18.9x −50% | 28.4x −25% | 37.9x today | 47.3x +25% | 90.1x 5y median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −18% (decline) | −28% | −22% | −18% | −14% | −2% |
| 0% (no growth) | −13% | −6% | +0% | +5% | +19% |
| 18% (half) | +3% | +11% | +18% | +23% | +40% |
| 36% (Street consensus) | +18% | +28% | +36% | +42% | +61% |
| 44% (beat) | +26% | +36% | +44% | +51% | +72% |
| 53% (big beat) | +33% | +45% | +53% | +60% | +82% |
“The bet you're really making is that American homeowners keep putting solar panels and batteries on their roofs, and keep choosing Enphase's little inverters, one bolted under each panel, to run them. You're betting they keep buying even now that Washington has killed the tax credit that used to pay back a chunk of the cost.”
From our ENPH write-up.
Read the ENPH write-up →Method. Trailing diluted EPS of $1.02 (price $38.61 ÷ 37.9x trailing P/E; data from Financial Modeling Prep, September 8, 2026). Exit multiples are anchored to the stock itself: 50% and 25% below today's multiple, today's, 25% above, and its own five-fiscal-year median of 90.1x. Growth rows are anchored to the Street’s forward consensus: a decline at half the center rate, zero, half, the center, 25% above, and 50% above. Cell shading scales with the return, green positive, red negative. Each cell: EPS compounds at the row's rate for five years, the stock is valued at the column's multiple in year five, and the result is the annualized return against today's price. Dividends and buybacks excluded. An illustrative surface, not a forecast and not a call.