What's priced into Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited?
What do you have to believe to make money in Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited at $2312? The stock trades at 7.9x trailing earnings and its own trailing growth runs about 40% a year. The question is where do we go from here?
Growth down the side, exit multiple across the top, your five-year annualized return in each cell.
5-year annualized return · growth vs exit multiple
| EPS growth ↓ · Exit multiple → | 3.9x −50% | 5.9x −25% | 7.9x today | 9.9x +25% | 8.0x 5y median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −20% (decline) | −30% | −24% | −20% | −16% | −20% |
| 0% (no growth) | −13% | −6% | +0% | +5% | +0% |
| 20% (half) | +4% | +13% | +20% | +25% | +20% |
| 40% (trailing, capped) | +22% | +32% | +40% | +46% | +40% |
| 50% (beat) | +31% | +42% | +50% | +57% | +50% |
| 60% (big beat) | +39% | +51% | +60% | +67% | +60% |
“10 of diluted EPS across the four quarters through June 2026.”
From our FFH.TO write-up.
Read the FFH.TO write-up →Method. Trailing diluted EPS of $292.69 (price $2311.81 ÷ 7.9x trailing P/E; data from Financial Modeling Prep, September 3, 2026). Exit multiples are anchored to the stock itself: 50% and 25% below today's multiple, today's, 25% above, and its own five-fiscal-year median of 8.0x. Growth rows are anchored to the company’s own trailing growth: a decline at half the center rate, zero, half, the center, 25% above, and 50% above. Cell shading scales with the return, green positive, red negative. Each cell: EPS compounds at the row's rate for five years, the stock is valued at the column's multiple in year five, and the result is the annualized return against today's price. Dividends and buybacks excluded. An illustrative surface, not a forecast and not a call.