FFBack of Napkin
Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited FFH.TO
You are paying about C$2,307 for a share of a $47B insurance holding company that earned $204.10 of diluted EPS across the four quarters through June 2026.
The bet turns on whether the underwriting engine keeps grinding at a sub-95 combined ratio while Watsa's investment book, now sized like a small hedge fund, avoids blowing up the compounding.
Key data
FFH.TO · price with moving averages
Source: market data.
The business
Fairfax writes property and casualty insurance and reinsurance globally through Odyssey, Northbridge, Allied World, Crum & Forster, Zenith and Brit, then invests the float. That is the entire model, and it has been the entire model since Watsa bought the shell in 1985. Premiums come in, claims go out over years, and in between the float, roughly $35B of it, funds an investment portfolio Watsa runs like a concentrated value book: index shorts in the 2010s, bank stakes, Greek and Indian equities, Digit in India, the BlackBerry stub. The moat is float at insurance-priced cost combined with permission to invest it unconventionally, and the cost of that permission is the volatility the reader sees in the numbers below.
Inside the complete Back of Napkin
- 01The business
- 02The numbers
- 03Management
- 04How it fails or surprises you
- 05The shape of the payoff
- 06Closing thoughts
- 07Methodology
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