What's priced into Blue Owl Capital Inc.?
What do you have to believe to make money in Blue Owl Capital Inc. at $12.02? The stock trades at 101.1x trailing earnings and the Street expects about 82% growth a year. The question is where do we go from here?
Growth down the side, exit multiple across the top, your five-year annualized return in each cell.
The expectations grid · 5-year annualized return
| EPS growth ↓ · Exit multiple → | 50.5x −50% | 75.8x −25% | 101.1x today | 126.4x +25% | 124.2x 5y median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −41% (decline) | −49% | −45% | −41% | −39% | −39% |
| 0% (no growth) | −13% | −6% | +0% | +5% | +4% |
| 41% (half) | +23% | +33% | +41% | +48% | +47% |
| 82% (Street consensus) | +59% | +72% | +82% | +91% | +90% |
| 103% (beat) | +77% | +92% | +103% | +112% | +112% |
| 124% (big beat) | +95% | +111% | +124% | +134% | +133% |
“Blue Owl's fee growth has been cut in half in eighteen months, from 24% to 8%, and the market has answered by cutting the stock 39% and leaving a 7.8% d…”
From our OWL write-up.
Read the OWL write-up →Method. Trailing diluted EPS of $0.12 (price $12.02 ÷ 101.1x trailing P/E; data from Financial Modeling Prep, August 28, 2026). Exit multiples are anchored to the stock itself: 50% and 25% below today's multiple, today's, 25% above, and its own five-fiscal-year median of 124.2x. Growth rows are anchored to the Street’s forward consensus: a decline at half the center rate, zero, half, the center, 25% above, and 50% above. Cell shading scales with the return, green positive, red negative. Each cell: EPS compounds at the row's rate for five years, the stock is valued at the column's multiple in year five, and the result is the annualized return against today's price. Dividends and buybacks excluded. An illustrative surface, not a forecast and not a call.