What's priced into The Trade Desk, Inc.?
What do you have to believe to make money in The Trade Desk, Inc. at $13.42? The stock trades at 16.0x trailing earnings and its own trailing growth runs about 8% a year. The question is where do we go from here?
Growth down the side, exit multiple across the top, your five-year annualized return in each cell.
The expectations grid · 5-year annualized return
| EPS growth ↓ · Exit multiple → | 8.0x −50% | 12.0x −25% | 16.0x today | 20.0x +25% | 146.9x 5y median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −4% (decline) | −16% | −9% | −4% | +0% | +50% |
| 0% (no growth) | −13% | −6% | +0% | +5% | +56% |
| 4% (half) | −9% | −2% | +4% | +9% | +62% |
| 8% (baseline 8%) | −6% | +2% | +8% | +13% | +68% |
| 10% (beat) | −4% | +4% | +10% | +15% | +71% |
| 12% (big beat) | −2% | +6% | +12% | +17% | +75% |
“The Trade Desk grew revenue 3.0% last quarter, down from 25.4% five quarters earlier, and the shares have fallen 76% to $13.27.”
From our TTD write-up.
Read the TTD write-up →Method. Trailing diluted EPS of $0.84 (price $13.42 ÷ 16.0x trailing P/E; data from Financial Modeling Prep, August 28, 2026). Exit multiples are anchored to the stock itself: 50% and 25% below today's multiple, today's, 25% above, and its own five-fiscal-year median of 146.9x. Growth rows are anchored to the company’s own trailing growth: a decline at half the center rate, zero, half, the center, 25% above, and 50% above. Cell shading scales with the return, green positive, red negative. Each cell: EPS compounds at the row's rate for five years, the stock is valued at the column's multiple in year five, and the result is the annualized return against today's price. Dividends and buybacks excluded. An illustrative surface, not a forecast and not a call.