What's priced into XP Inc.?
What do you have to believe to make money in XP Inc. at $19.99? The stock trades at 9.9x trailing earnings and the Street expects about 102% growth a year. The question is where do we go from here?
Growth down the side, exit multiple across the top, your five-year annualized return in each cell.
5-year annualized return · growth vs exit multiple
| EPS growth ↓ · Exit multiple → | 4.9x −50% | 7.4x −25% | 9.9x today | 12.4x +25% | 12.6x 5y median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −51% (decline) | −58% | −54% | −51% | −49% | −49% |
| 0% (no growth) | −13% | −6% | +0% | +5% | +5% |
| 51% (half) | +32% | +43% | +51% | +58% | +59% |
| 102% (Street consensus) | +76% | +91% | +102% | +112% | +112% |
| 128% (beat) | +99% | +115% | +128% | +138% | +139% |
| 154% (big beat) | +121% | +139% | +154% | +165% | +166% |
“XP earns a low-20s return on equity and is priced near ten times earnings, the valuation of a broker the market has filed under ex-growth in a country it has filed under uninvestable.”
From our XP write-up.
Read the XP write-up →Method. Trailing diluted EPS of $2.02 (price $19.99 ÷ 9.9x trailing P/E; data from Financial Modeling Prep, September 3, 2026). Exit multiples are anchored to the stock itself: 50% and 25% below today's multiple, today's, 25% above, and its own five-fiscal-year median of 12.6x. Growth rows are anchored to the Street’s forward consensus: a decline at half the center rate, zero, half, the center, 25% above, and 50% above. Cell shading scales with the return, green positive, red negative. Each cell: EPS compounds at the row's rate for five years, the stock is valued at the column's multiple in year five, and the result is the annualized return against today's price. Dividends and buybacks excluded. An illustrative surface, not a forecast and not a call.