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Back of Napkin

XP Inc. XP

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XP earns a low-20s return on equity and is priced near ten times earnings, the valuation of a broker the market has filed under ex-growth in a country it has filed under uninvestable.

The whole position turns on one thing: whether Brazilian household money keeps arriving on the platform when the rate cycle turns, or whether the incumbent banks have finally cloned the independent-advisor model that built it.

Key data

Sector / industryFinancials / Capital Markets
FYE / countryDec / Brazil (Cayman inc.)
Price · 52w range$19.99 · $14.80–$23.13
Market cap$10.5B (USD)
Filing anchorQ2 FY2026 6-K, filed Aug 17, 2026
TTM (BRL)Rev R$19.3B · Dil EPS R$10.12 · NI R$5.3B
Valuation (TTM)P/E 10.1x · P/B 2.1x · Div 1.9%

XP · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$10$14$19$23$28 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Sep '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

XP is Brazil's largest independent investment platform, where a mass-affluent Brazilian goes for something other than what their retail bank sells them. The shelf is wide: brokerage in equities and fixed income, mutual and pension funds, insurance, and increasingly cards and collateralized credit. Distribution is the real asset, a network of thousands of affiliated advisors who sit between XP and the client, expensive for a rival to poach. Money arrives in three streams: a take rate on the roughly trillion reais of client assets on the platform, net interest income on the float, and fees and commissions on funds and issuer services. The one-sentence moat is switching cost plus incumbency, the advisor relationship and account inertia that keep a client from leaving. Whether it widens or narrows against Nubank, BTG and a re-armed Itaú is moat-dive's fight, not this page's.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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