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Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. AAOI

The bet you're really making is that Amazon and the other giant cloud companies keep buying Applied Optoelectronics' optical transceivers, the laser-based plugs that move data as light between AI chips in data centers, and that the company can build enough of them to finally make money. You are betting it turns a revenue explosion into its first real profit in nearly a decade before the flood of new stock it is selling waters you down. Right now the revenue part is going very well, with one thing to watch: sales jumped 86% from a year ago to the biggest quarter ever, but the profit on each dollar of sales is shrinking, from 30.3 cents to 27.7 cents, and on the official scorecard the company still lost $22.8 million. You pay 14 times sales, and 19 times what Wall Street guesses it earns in 2027, for a company that has not earned a full-year profit since 2017.

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IonQ, Inc. IONQThe bet you're really making is that quantum computers stop being lab experiments and start doing paid work, and that IonQ's trapped-ion machines, the kind Amazon and Nvidia already plug into, are the ones customers keep buying. You're betting the $485 million of orders already on the books turns into cash before IonQ runs low, because it spends far more than it earns and fills the gap by printing new stock. Right now sales are exploding, $80 million last quarter, nearly four times a year earlier, yet the company lost money running the business every single quarter and those losses keep growing. You pay about 60 times sales, because there are no profits to price, and even on the revenue Wall Street sees three years out, still 23 times. Back of NapkinSep 7 Quantinuum Inc. Class A Common Stock QNTThe bet you're really making is that quantum computing becomes a real business, and that Quantinuum's machines, which trap single atoms with lasers to run the math, are the ones customers pay for first. You're betting the biggest buyer, the U.S. government, keeps writing checks, and that the $2.1 billion in the bank lasts long enough to find out. Right now it is tiny: $8 million of sales last quarter, almost quadruple a year ago, against a $555 million operating loss. You pay almost 1,000 times last year's sales, and the stock has fallen 43% from its high since listing this year. Back of NapkinSep 7 SK hynix Inc. SKHYThe bet you're really making is that the world keeps building AI data centers, and keeps buying SK Hynix's memory chips to feed the processors that run those models. You're betting SK Hynix stays the top supplier of HBM, the stacked memory bonded right next to Nvidia's chips, and that memory prices stay high instead of collapsing the way they always have. Right now it is going better than at any point in the company's history: profit per share ran from ₩1,250 to ₩8,760 in four quarters, each above forecast, with the most recent two quarters landing 50% and 71% ahead of consensus. You pay about 8 times trailing twelve-month earnings, and closer to 5 times if this quarter's pace holds, the least the stock has ever cost on profit, because everyone knows memory earnings peak right before they fall. Back of NapkinSep 7 ON Semiconductor Corporation ONThe bet you're really making is that carmakers keep building electric and hybrid cars and keep buying onsemi's silicon carbide chips, the parts that carry power from the battery to the wheels. You're betting that as car demand wakes back up, onsemi is still the supplier the big automakers designed in, so the orders come back to it and not a rival. Right now it is turning: sales grew 9% and profit 37% from a year ago, the first growth after two years of shrinking, though the warehouses are still full of unsold chips. You pay 47 times last year's shrunken profit, about 25 times next year's, more than the stock has fetched on normal earnings. Back of NapkinSep 7