BBBack of Napkin
Banco Bradesco S.A. BBD
Bradesco is one of Brazil's largest banks bolted to one of its largest insurers, priced at about 1.1 times book while earning 13.6% on that book, the discount a market applies to a franchise it does not yet believe has been repaired.
The hinge is return on equity: rival Itaú earns near 20% and is paid over two times book, so every point Bradesco claws back toward that level reprices the stock on top of a near-7% dividend collected while waiting.
Key data
BBD · price with moving averages
Source: market data.
The business
Bradesco runs two engines. The first is a full-service bank: checking and savings deposits funding mortgages, vehicle loans, payroll-deductible credit, cards and corporate lending across a national branch and digital footprint, staffed by roughly 82,000 people against BRL 2.33tn of assets. The second is Bradesco Seguros, one of Brazil's biggest insurance, pension and capitalization operations, which sells auto, life, health and private-pension products and generates fee and underwriting income that is steadier than the loan book and pays a large share of the dividend. Money is made on the spread between what deposits cost and what loans earn, plus insurance float and asset-management fees. The moat is scale and franchise, a low-cost deposit base and captive insurance cross-sell, not superior returns: right now the bank earns less on its capital than its closest peer does on the same kind of book.
Inside the complete Back of Napkin
- 01The business
- 02The numbers
- 03Management
- 04How it fails or surprises you
- 05The shape of the payoff
- 06Closing thoughts
- 07Methodology
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