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Back of Napkin

Boston Scientific Corporation BSX

Three-pass checkedFresh as companies report

Boston Scientific has lost 55% of its value since September while revenue grew and operating margin expanded, which is not what a broken company usually looks like on the way down.

Management halved its own 2026 growth guidance in two steps while beating every quarter it guided, and the question is whether the two products that stopped growing are lapping a launch or losing a market.

Key data

Sector / industryHealth Care / Medical Devices
FYE / countryDec / US
Price · 52w range$48.30 · $42.20-$109.50
Market cap · EV$71.8B · $83.9B
Filing anchorQ2-FY2026 (CQ2 CY2026); reports next Oct 28, 2026
TTMRev $21.0B · GAAP EPS $2.46 · FCF $3.6B
Forward P/EFY26E 14.6x · FY27E 14.1x (consensus adjusted EPS)
YieldNo dividend · net debt $12.1B, 2.1x EBITDA

BSX · price with moving averages

Daily · 6MWeekly · 3Y
$39$57$76$94$112 Sep '23Apr '24Nov '24Jun '25Jan '26Aug '26 BID
EMAs82140

Source: market data.

The business

Boston Scientific sells single-use devices that go inside people and get thrown away afterward: stents, catheters, scopes, spinal cord stimulators. About a third of revenue is MedSurg: endoscopy, urology and neuromodulation, which grow mid single digits in almost any weather. The rest is Cardiovascular, holding the two franchises that produced the last three years. Farapulse is a catheter that uses electrical pulses instead of heat to ablate the tissue causing atrial fibrillation. Watchman is a plug for the left atrial appendage that lets an AFib patient stop taking blood thinners. Both treat the same arrhythmia, and together they were 26% of last quarter's sales.

The moat is the cath lab. An electrophysiologist trained on a catheter, in a hospital that stocked the console and consumables, does not switch for a marginal edge. That holds until competitors arrive with a comparable tool and a sales force, and in pulsed field ablation three of them did.

Inside the complete Back of Napkin

  1. 01The business
  2. 02The numbers
  3. 03Management
  4. 04How it fails or surprises you
  5. 05The shape of the payoff
  6. 06Closing thoughts
  7. 07Methodology

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