BSBack of Napkin
Boston Scientific Corporation BSX
Boston Scientific has lost 55% of its value since September while revenue grew and operating margin expanded, which is not what a broken company usually looks like on the way down.
Management halved its own 2026 growth guidance in two steps while beating every quarter it guided, and the question is whether the two products that stopped growing are lapping a launch or losing a market.
Key data
BSX · price with moving averages
Source: market data.
The business
Boston Scientific sells single-use devices that go inside people and get thrown away afterward: stents, catheters, scopes, spinal cord stimulators. About a third of revenue is MedSurg: endoscopy, urology and neuromodulation, which grow mid single digits in almost any weather. The rest is Cardiovascular, holding the two franchises that produced the last three years. Farapulse is a catheter that uses electrical pulses instead of heat to ablate the tissue causing atrial fibrillation. Watchman is a plug for the left atrial appendage that lets an AFib patient stop taking blood thinners. Both treat the same arrhythmia, and together they were 26% of last quarter's sales.
The moat is the cath lab. An electrophysiologist trained on a catheter, in a hospital that stocked the console and consumables, does not switch for a marginal edge. That holds until competitors arrive with a comparable tool and a sales force, and in pulsed field ablation three of them did.
Inside the complete Back of Napkin
- 01The business
- 02The numbers
- 03Management
- 04How it fails or surprises you
- 05The shape of the payoff
- 06Closing thoughts
- 07Methodology
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